In the vibrant landscape of Kazakhstan, a fascinating transformation is underway – the projection that the country’s population will soar to 26.3 million by the year 2050. This forecast, presented by the Unified Accumulative Pension Fund (UAPF), sheds light on the evolving demographics shaping the future of this Central Asian nation.
As of the beginning of 2025, Kazakhstan boasted a population exceeding 20.3 million individuals. Within this diverse populace, a breakdown reveals intriguing insights – 42.8% were under the age of 25, 48.0% fell within the 25 to 65 age bracket, and 9.2% were aged 65 and above. These numbers not only paint a picture of the current societal composition but also hint at the impending changes as the years unfold.
Global demographic trends, characterized by aging populations and dwindling birth rates, have cast a profound influence on countries worldwide, including Kazakhstan. The World Economic Forum has drawn attention to a significant milestone – there are now more individuals over 65 years old on Earth than children under five. Against this backdrop, Kazakhstan has witnessed a notable uptick in life expectancy, climbing from 70.23 years in 2021 to 75.44 years in 2024.
Both the UAPF and United Nations concur on one crucial aspect – Kazakhstan is on the cusp of a demographic shift towards an aging population. The proportion of individuals aged 60 and above has steadily risen from 9.7% in 2009 to 13.9% in 2024, with projections indicating a further increase to 19% by 2050. This implies that by mid-century, one out of every five Kazakh citizens will be in the 60+ age group.
The Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index for 2024, where Kazakhstan stood as the sole representative from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), underscores the pressing need to revamp pension systems in response to declining birth rates and elongated life spans. In navigating these challenges, the adoption of multi-level pension frameworks, encompassing both state-backed and funded components, emerges as a promising model. Kazakhstan has already embraced this approach, fostering a more sustainable and inclusive pension coverage.
However, the existing solidarity pension, predicated on pre-1998 work experience, is gradually waning. Furthermore, the mandatory 10% pension contributions may fall short in ensuring a financially secure retirement for all. To address these concerns, Kazakhstan initiated the implementation of mandatory employer pension contributions in 2024 for individuals born in 1975 and later. Presently, the responsibility for pension provisioning in Kazakhstan is a collaborative effort involving the state, employees, and employers, aligning with global best practices.
In essence, Kazakhstan stands at a pivotal juncture, poised to navigate the complexities of demographic transitions and pension sustainability. The evolving landscape of population dynamics and retirement provisions not only shapes individual lives but also reverberates across the broader economic and social fabric of the nation. As Kazakhstan charts its course towards a future marked by a burgeoning population and an aging demographic, the imperative to adapt pension systems to meet evolving needs becomes increasingly paramount.
The story of Kazakhstan’s population growth is not merely a statistical projection but a narrative of adaptation, resilience, and foresight in the face of demographic evolution.
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